{"id":22358,"date":"2026-01-30T06:01:23","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T06:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/?p=22358"},"modified":"2026-01-30T06:01:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T06:01:26","slug":"saaennusteet-totta-vai-hyvaa-viihdetta-weather-forecasts-truth-or-just-good-entertainment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/2026\/01\/30\/saaennusteet-totta-vai-hyvaa-viihdetta-weather-forecasts-truth-or-just-good-entertainment\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00e4\u00e4ennusteet &#8211; totta vai hyv\u00e4\u00e4 viihdett\u00e4\/ Weather forecasts -truth or just good entertainment?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Retkikuntaty\u00f6 ei eroa merkitt\u00e4v\u00e4sti vaikkapa firman py\u00f6ritt\u00e4misest\u00e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Otetaan yksi esimerkki.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yritysjohtajat lukevat ja analysoivat erilaisia ennusteita, joiden avulla pyrit\u00e4\u00e4n navigoimaan karikoiden ja myrskykeskusten ohi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Retkikunnat..tai ainakin ne, joissa min\u00e4 olen ollut mukana\u2026 operoivat varsin haastavissa olosuhteissa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My\u00f6s meid\u00e4n on v\u00e4ltett\u00e4v\u00e4 karikot, muuten ei kunnian kukko laula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>S\u00e4\u00e4ennusteiden<\/strong> saaminen on \u2013 varsinkin j\u00e4\u00e4tik\u00f6lle \u2013 ihan ehdoton juttu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On my\u00f6nnett\u00e4v\u00e4, ett\u00e4 nuo maailmalla vietetyt 20 vuotta ovat j\u00e4tt\u00e4neet j\u00e4lkens\u00e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seuraan t\u00e4\u00e4ll\u00e4 kotimaisemissakin (Nuuksio, Suomi) haukkana s\u00e4\u00e4ennusteita.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joulukuussa 2025 annettiin pitk\u00e4n ajan, siis l\u00e4hes koko talvea koskeva s\u00e4\u00e4ennuste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sen mukaan s\u00e4\u00e4 on poikkeuksellisen l\u00e4mmin ja sateinen. Monille saattoi tulla mieleen etel\u00e4isen Suomen talvi 2019\/2020, jolloin ainakaan meik\u00e4l\u00e4inen ei tehnyt kertaakaan lumit\u00f6it\u00e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No, se ennuste meni kyll\u00e4 ihan p\u00e4in persett\u00e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kylm\u00e4\u00e4 on ollut ja luntakin on piisannut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Olen ottanut sen asenteen, ett\u00e4 talvisista olosuhteista otetaan kaikki mahdollinen irti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Luin pari p\u00e4iv\u00e4\u00e4 sitten s\u00e4\u00e4palvelu Forecan nettisivulta uutisen, joka kertoi &#8220;Euroopan keskipitkien s\u00e4\u00e4ennusteiden keskuksen (ECMWF) julkaissen kolmen kuukauden ennusteen helmi\u2013huhtikuun jaksolle&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> &#8220;Ennusteen mukaan jakso helmikuusta huhtikuuhun on koko Suomessa reilusti tavanomaista helmi\u2013huhtikuuta l\u00e4mpim\u00e4mpi&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ans kattoo, kuinka tuon ennusteen k\u00e4y. Ainakin 10 p\u00e4iv\u00e4n ennuste n\u00e4ytt\u00e4\u00e4 kylm\u00e4lt\u00e4&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00e4h\u00e4n loppuun viel\u00e4 yksi huomio s\u00e4\u00e4st\u00e4; torstaina aurinko l\u00e4mmitti jo mukavasti, vaikka ulkona olikin viile\u00e4\u00e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ja valoisa aika on lis\u00e4\u00e4ntynyt jo kahdella tunnilla:-)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>************************************************************************************************<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expedition work is not all that different from running a company. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s take one example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Company executives read and analyze various forecasts in order to navigate past shoals and storm centers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expeditions\u2026 or at least those I\u2019ve been involved in\u2026 operate in rather challenging conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We, too, have to avoid the shoals \u2014 otherwise there will be no crowing of the rooster of glory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Getting weather forecasts is absolutely essential , especially on a glacier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have to admit that those 20 years spent abroad have left their mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even here back home (Nuuksio, Finland), I follow weather forecasts like a hawk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In December 2025, a long-term forecast was issued, covering almost the entire winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to it, the weather was supposed to be exceptionally mild and rainy. For many, it may have brought to mind the winter of 2019\/2020 in southern Finland, when at least I didn\u2019t shovel snow even once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, that forecast went completely off the rails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s been cold, and there\u2019s been plenty of snow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve adopted the attitude that we should make the most of winter conditions while they last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A couple of days ago, I read an article on the website of the weather service Foreca, reporting that \u201cthe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has published a three-month forecast for the February\u2013April period.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAccording to the forecast, the period from February to April will be clearly warmer than average across all of Finland.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s see how that forecast turns out. At least the 10-day forecast looks cold\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One final observation about the weather: on Thursday, the sun was already pleasantly warm, even though the air was still chilly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And daylight has already increased by two hours \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Retkikuntaty\u00f6 ei eroa merkitt\u00e4v\u00e4sti vaikkapa firman py\u00f6ritt\u00e4misest\u00e4. Otetaan yksi esimerkki. Yritysjohtajat lukevat ja analysoivat erilaisia ennusteita, joiden avulla pyrit\u00e4\u00e4n navigoimaan karikoiden ja myrskykeskusten ohi. Retkikunnat..tai ainakin ne, joissa min\u00e4 olen ollut mukana\u2026 operoivat varsin haastavissa olosuhteissa. My\u00f6s meid\u00e4n on v\u00e4ltett\u00e4v\u00e4 karikot, muuten ei kunnian kukko laula. S\u00e4\u00e4ennusteiden saaminen on \u2013 varsinkin j\u00e4\u00e4tik\u00f6lle \u2013 ihan ehdoton [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22358"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22358\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22363,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22358\/revisions\/22363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}