{"id":22251,"date":"2026-01-11T05:49:59","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T05:49:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/?p=22251"},"modified":"2026-01-11T05:50:02","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T05:50:02","slug":"paranoid-leadership-osa-2-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/paranoid-leadership-osa-2-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Paranoid Leadership, Osa 2\/ Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00c4\u00e4riolosuhteissa vainoharhainen johtaminen<\/strong> ei ole tyylikysymys vaan selviytymisstrategia<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retkikuntajohtamisessa se tarkoittaa j\u00e4rjestelm\u00e4llist\u00e4 tapaa olettaa, ett\u00e4 jokin pett\u00e4\u00e4<\/em> ja varmistaa, ettei se ole kohtalokasta.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oleta aina pahin eli s\u00e4\u00e4 k\u00e4\u00e4ntyy, kalusto hajoaa, ihminen v\u00e4syy tai ett\u00e4 p\u00e4\u00e4t\u00f6s tehd\u00e4\u00e4n liian my\u00f6h\u00e4\u00e4n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e4\u00e4t\u00f6kset tehd\u00e4\u00e4n ennen<\/strong> kriisi\u00e4 ja \u201cent\u00e4 jos\u201d<\/strong> -skenaariot k\u00e4yd\u00e4\u00e4n l\u00e4pi etuk\u00e4teen<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimismi ei ikin\u00e4 ohjaa aikatauluja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Talven 2013 aikana valmistauduimme ensimm\u00e4iseen, mutta ei viimeiseen Gr\u00f6nlannin j\u00e4\u00e4tikk\u00f6seikkailuun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retkikuntakaveri kertoi minulle, ett\u00e4 meid\u00e4n on p\u00e4\u00e4st\u00e4v\u00e4 j\u00e4\u00e4tik\u00f6n halki xx p\u00e4iv\u00e4ss\u00e4, sill\u00e4 h\u00e4nen pit\u00e4\u00e4 olla jossain muualla tiettyn\u00e4 ajankohtana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vastasin, “siin\u00e4 tapauksessa me siirret\u00e4\u00e4n j\u00e4\u00e4tik\u00f6lle menoa vuodella”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En l\u00e4hde \u00e4\u00e4riolosuhteisiin ihmisten kanssa, joilla on kiire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olen n\u00e4hnyt, mit\u00e4 se saa aikaan….<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eli, reitti, aikataulu ja energiankulutus<\/strong> lasketaan pessimistisesti<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poistumisreitit<\/strong> p\u00e4\u00e4tet\u00e4\u00e4n jo karttap\u00f6yd\u00e4ll\u00e4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jokaisella kriittisell\u00e4 asialla on vararatkaisu, vastuuhenkil\u00f6 ja p\u00e4\u00e4t\u00f6skynnys eli milloin k\u00e4\u00e4nnyt\u00e4\u00e4n takaisin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vuorilla se tarkoittaisi sit\u00e4, ett\u00e4 mik\u00e4li emme saavuta huippua tiettyyn kellonaikaan, niin silloin k\u00e4\u00e4nnyt\u00e4\u00e4n takaisin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vuoden 1996 Mount Everestin katastrofi (10.5.), jossa kuoli useita ihmisi\u00e4 johtui mm. t\u00e4llaisesta v\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4st\u00e4 peliliikkeest\u00e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emme liiku j\u00e4\u00e4tik\u00f6ll\u00e4, mik\u00e4li ulkona on kova myrsky. Tuolloin me varaamme mukana kulkevasta reest\u00e4 ruokaa telttoihin ainakin viikoksi, sill\u00e4 sen se myrsky voi pahimmillaan kest\u00e4\u00e4. Er\u00e4\u00e4ll\u00e4 kerralla 5 p\u00e4iv\u00e4\u00e4….<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vainoharhainen johtaja rakastaakin puskureita. Varaamme aikaa ylim\u00e4\u00e4r\u00e4isiin lepop\u00e4iviin, ruokaa ja polttoainetta (retkikeittimet) aina reilusti yli minimin, ryhm\u00e4\u00e4 ei ajeta jatkuvasti \u00e4\u00e4rirajoille jne. Puskurit ovat meid\u00e4n paras henkivakuutus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4\u00e4riolosuhteissa ryhm\u00e4 aliarvioi riskit hyv\u00e4ll\u00e4 s\u00e4\u00e4ll\u00e4 ja yliarvioi kykyns\u00e4 v\u00e4symyksen keskell\u00e4. Johtajan teht\u00e4v\u00e4 on olla<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ensimm\u00e4inen, joka hidastaa ja olla se ryhm\u00e4n pessimistinen kompassi<\/strong> sek\u00e4 olla viimeinen, joka innostuu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retken j\u00e4lkeen vainoharhainen johtaja kysyy mik\u00e4 melkein kaatoi meid\u00e4t, miss\u00e4 olimme liian itsevarmoja ja mik\u00e4 toimi vain tuurilla?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4in seuraava retki on oikeasti turvallisempi<\/strong>, ei vain \u201connistunut\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Safety comes first!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*******************************************************************************************<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In extreme conditions, paranoid leadership is not a matter of style but a survival strategy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In expedition leadership, it means a systematic way of assuming that something will fail…and making sure that failure is not fatal.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Always assume the worst: the weather will turn, equipment will break, people will get exhausted, or a decision will be made too late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Decisions are made before the crisis,<\/strong> and \u201cwhat if\u201d scenarios are worked through in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimism never drives schedules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the winter of 2013, we were preparing for our first but not our last Greenland glacier expedition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A fellow expedition member told me that we had to cross the glacier in xx<\/em> days because he needed to be somewhere else by a specific date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I replied, \u201cIn that case, we\u2019ll postpone going onto the glacier by a year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t go into extreme conditions with people who are in a hurry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve seen what that leads to\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So routes, schedules, and energy expenditure are calculated pessimistically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exit routes are decided at the map table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every critical element has a backup plan, a responsible person, and a decision threshold\u2014meaning the point at which we turn back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the mountains, that would mean that if we don\u2019t reach the summit by a certain time, we turn around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 1996 Mount Everest disaster (May 10), in which several people died, was partly caused by exactly this kind of wrong strategic choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We do not move on the glacier during severe storms. In such conditions, we load food from the sleds into the tents for at least a week, because a storm can last that long at worst. Once, it lasted five days\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A paranoid leader loves buffers. We build in extra rest days, carry food and fuel (for stoves) well beyond the minimum, avoid pushing the group constantly to its limits, and so on. Buffers are our best life insurance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In extreme conditions, a group underestimates risk in good weather and overestimates its abilities when exhausted. The leader\u2019s job is to be the first to slow down, to act as the group\u2019s pessimistic compass, and to be the last one to get excited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the expedition, the paranoid leader asks: what almost brought us down, where were we too confident, and what worked purely by luck?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s how the next expedition is genuinely safer, not just \u201csuccessful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Safety comes first!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c4\u00e4riolosuhteissa vainoharhainen johtaminen ei ole tyylikysymys vaan selviytymisstrategia. Retkikuntajohtamisessa se tarkoittaa j\u00e4rjestelm\u00e4llist\u00e4 tapaa olettaa, ett\u00e4 jokin pett\u00e4\u00e4 ja varmistaa, ettei se ole kohtalokasta. Oleta aina pahin eli s\u00e4\u00e4 k\u00e4\u00e4ntyy, kalusto hajoaa, ihminen v\u00e4syy tai ett\u00e4 p\u00e4\u00e4t\u00f6s tehd\u00e4\u00e4n liian my\u00f6h\u00e4\u00e4n. P\u00e4\u00e4t\u00f6kset tehd\u00e4\u00e4n ennen kriisi\u00e4 ja \u201cent\u00e4 jos\u201d -skenaariot k\u00e4yd\u00e4\u00e4n l\u00e4pi etuk\u00e4teen Optimismi ei ikin\u00e4 ohjaa aikatauluja. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22251"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22251\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22255,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22251\/revisions\/22255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportman.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}